Global warming is a near-future major problem that has serious consequences on life on Earth. Accumulation of CO2 emission in the atmosphere becomes a dominating factor in the global warming process. This study introduces a global temperature uptrend model that considers effects of atmospheric CO2 buildup because of combustion of natural gas, oil and coal fuels. The model is based on earth’s energy balance modeling and estimates impacts of fossil fuel-based CO2 emission on the average global temperature. To evaluate effects of fossil fuel reduction policies, this model is used to study yearly 3 %, 5 % and 7 % fossil fuel reduction scenarios on 2013–2022 global fuel consumption data. This backward projection indicated that the cumulative carbon dioxide emission of 10-year global fuel consumption has potential of about +0.023 °C/y global temperature rise between 2013 and 2022 years.
Baris Baykant Alagoz, Cemal Keles, Burhan Baran, A note on effects of fossil fuel reduction policies on atmospheric carbon dioxide buildup and global warming, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 279, 2026, 106724, ISSN 1364-6826, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106724.