Enhanced impact of future temperature on Northern Hemisphere snowfall

Changes in precipitation phase (rain or snow, commonly represented by snow fraction) and snowfall pose challenges for water resource management. We studied how snowfall and snow fraction may change across the Northern Hemisphere using the latest climate models and observations. We find a general trend of decreasing snowfall and snow fraction in the historical period, although this is not significant in most regions. Looking to the future, projections show that snowfall and snow fraction will likely decrease even more, especially under scenarios with higher greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are some regions where snowfall might actually increase. In the future, temperature will play a greater role than precipitation in affecting snowfall change, and the relative contribution of the two factors will become more disparate. This study helps us to understand how snowfall and snow fraction will change in the future, reveals the relative impacts of temperature and precipitation in governing snowfall responses to climate warming in different regions, helping to inform adaptive water management.