Earth’s climate over the coming decades to centuries will be determined by cumulative global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2)1 (Fig.1a). Limiting global CO2 emissions, and thereby limiting global warming, relies on cooperation, commitments and actions towards emission reductions that are implemented at national and sub-national scales2. Within these jurisdictions, the approval/permitting of new or extended fossil fuel extraction occurs on a project-by-project basis. This means that decisions with long-term commitments to future CO2 emissions and their consequences are made at a project-level, which on their own can appear to be too small to significantly influence global climate change. This raises a fundamental question in the nexus between science and decision-making: if every project is considered too small to matter, does that imply that no individual project bears responsibility for any climate change consequences?
Abram, N.J., Maher, N., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. et al. Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making. npj Clim. Action 4, 92 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-025-00296-5